Belli/Tuck

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This winter, Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker is the new Coke or Pepsi. Both are really good left-handed hitters with power and happen to be the top hitter free agents on the market. The odds any team, like say the Mets, sign both is infinitesimal, so I think it’s worth comparing the two sluggers. Is it apples to oranges or apples to apples? Is one secretly RC Cola (I love RC Cola)? 

The 30-year-old Bellinger, or “Belli” as some people like to call him, is seemingly the more versatile of the two - he’s able to handle first base and all three outfield positions just fine, whereas “King Tuck” - who turns 29 next week - just presides over corner outfield. What’s odd is Tucker actually has more career stolen bases than Bellinger even though he’s purely ensconced in left/right, edging Cody 119 to 104 despite appearing in almost 400 fewer games. 

Bellinger began his major league career by winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2017. In 132 games he posted a career-best 143 OPS+. After playing all 162 games in 2018, Belli won the NL MVP award the following year over Christian Yelich, as well as his lone career Gold Glove for his work in right field. Just two years after he won NL MVP though, Bellinger fell off a cliff and was terrible in 2021 and disappointing in 2022 for the Dodgers, but that can be explained away due to somewhat freak injuries. He underwent shoulder surgery in November 2020 after dislocating it during an NLCS celebration with Enrique Hernandez, and early in the 2021 campaign suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula. Cody admitted during that summer the shoulder and leg injuries were impacting his performance - he ended up hitting .165 for the season. To add injury to insult, Bellinger fractured his rib in a collision with Gavin Lux that September. It’s unclear if he was still hurting in 2022 when he had the lowest on-base percentage of all qualified hitters in the majors at .265, but it’s certainly possible. 

That was the end of his career with the Dodgers. He signed up with the Chicago Cubs and in 2023 was named NL Comeback Player of the Year. He won a Silver Slugger award and even got some MVP votes. After a decent follow-up in Chicago in ‘24, Bellinger was dealt to the Yankees, where in 2025 he posted up 152 times and hit to a 125 OPS+. Fangraphs, for what it’s worth, projects Belli’s WAR to drop in 2026 from 4.9 to 3.0. 

Tucker meanwhile got started with the Houston Astros big league squad in the summer of 2018 but wasn’t an everyday player until the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He managed to triple six times in just 58 games. Tucker has posted at least a 4.2 WAR every season thereafter according to both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Tuck, like Bellinger, has a playoff pedigree: in the ‘21 playoffs he recorded a MLB-high 15 RBI while stealing five bases and smacking four home runs in 61 plate appearances. In 2022, when he was on a World Series winning team (a legitimate one at that) he won his only Gold Glove, like Bellinger, in right field. A right shin injury thanks to two foul balls cost Tucker a lot of time in 2024, resulting in him just playing 78 games. He also missed time with the Cubs last September with a left calf strain which cost him three weeks, and he played (poorly) through a hairline fracture in his right hand, which caused a bit of a controversy in Chicago. Fangraphs thinks Tucker’s WAR in 2026 will drop by 0.1 to 4.4. 

So, who is the better player? The consensus seems to be that Tucker is the better hitter and will end up with the most money, or at least a higher AAV over Bellinger. But I would say Bellinger is the better fit for the Mets, considering that a) he can play first base and not have to, you know, learn it like Jorge Polanco and b) he proved he can handle New York (not to mention Los Angeles.) The Mets are pursuing both, with the latest buzz indicating they’re more in on Tucker, perhaps because the chances Bellinger gets a long-term contract seem higher. Time will tell. I will say if New York (NL) gets either one of these guys, this offseason looks a lot better. 

Andy Martino announced he has left SNY to work for the Mets as a “team reporter and host.” Nobody seems to know what that means exactly. Somewhere, Adam Rubin is fuming. IYKYK.

The Cubs acquired Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera for three prospects, so cross Cabrera off the Mets’ wish list. Michael Marino tweeted that a source said the Mets and Fish weren’t “particularly close” to making a deal. As I wrote a few days ago, of course not. The Marlins don’t want to help the Mets out. At the very least, the Mets would have to pay a Met tax and have to give away a boatload of prospects if they want a Miami player. For what it’s worth, friend of the newsletter Keith Raad on Mets Hot Stove last night said he talked to Marlins people who think Cabrera’s arm is “hanging by a thread.” 

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon wrote that the Mets “hold some interest” in the remaining free agent starters (Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez et al.) but their “focus” at the moment is acquiring a starter via trade. They listed Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Kris Bubic, and Brady Singer as possibilities. It’s worth noting Tim Britton predicted a trade for the Royals’ Bubic the other day. If the Mets’ focus is on trading for a rotation guy, I wonder if Valdez and Suarez are holding pat with wanting more than three years on their deals. 

The article also reiterated that Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuña are available to potential suitors. Notably, none of the young pitchers were mentioned. 

Speaking of Vientos, he’s working out with free agent Alex Bregman in Arizona. He was shown on Instagram working on his hot corner defense. 

Get to know Mets prospect IF Marco Vargas why don’t ya?