Start Me Up

Happy Free Monday! Also, happy November. This month should be fun, hectic, and annoying as teams including the Mets rush to get their 2027 shopping in before the lockout. Consider a paid subscription to The Mets Newsletter! We’ll have full coverage of all of the rumors and news and actual honest-to-goodness signings and trades every single weekday and on weekends when big action takes place.

We’ve gone around the horn and covered the outfield, so it’s time to look at where the Mets stand with their starting pitching. Before we begin, some info:

ERA+ is just like OPS+, where 100 is league average. The higher the number over 100, the more awesome their earned run average is compared to other pitchers. 

xFIP is expected Fielding Independent Pitching, and is considered by some to be the most accurate pitching metric. It differs from ERA in that it focuses solely on the things pitchers control - strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs allowed. If someone has a higher xFIP than their ERA, it means they’ve been the beneficiaries of good luck and/or better than average defense. xFIP is more reliable if you’re into trying to determine how a pitcher will do in the future. 

Yes, I too wish there was an xFIP+. Maybe I’ll invent it someday. 

WHIP is walks + hits per inning. Obviously, the lower the number the better. Only the best of the best have WHIPs under 1.00. (I bet you can guess which free agent pitcher has that distinction.) 

bWAR is Wins Above Replacement the way Baseball Reference sees it. fWAR is Fangraphs’ interpretation (they seem to factor in xFIP a lot.)

Okay, so here’s how Mets starting pitching shaped up last season. I did not include the openers who were primarily bullpen dudes. I did include Kodai Senga because most of his innings pitched were as a starter (he won’t get away with his 2026 that easily!) 

The Mets will presumably have Tylor Megill return from Tommy John surgery, but they definitely need more pitching. It might not seem that way based on how last season ended when they threw four solid to pretty good youngsters out there - Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Zac Thornton, and Jonah Tong, with Sean Manaea rounding out the main cast. You can’t rely on Thornton and Tong though, since neither of whom have firmly established themselves (as much as I want to say Thornton has.) Manaea improved for a while there over the summer before a not so great final two months. Freddy Peralta struggled, then was traded away (where he improved.) Clay Holmes made fewer than 10 starts for the Mets and still finished with the second highest bWAR among Met starters for the whole season. But he broke his leg on a comebacker, then was traded away when he was finishing his rehab (where he wasn’t as good. More on that later.) David Peterson was dealt in the middle of the season because his ERA was over six (the xFIP, and the defense behind him in Chicago, proved he didn’t have much help from his teammates in Queens.) 

New York (NL)’s goal should be to go into camp where Thornton and Tong are the 8th and 9th starters. No, that’s not too much pitching. There’s no such thing. That’s like saying there’s too much happiness in your day. There will always be injuries before and during the regular season to give those youths opportunities. (Did you even know Zac Thornton existed before last summer?) 

So let’s look at the free agent market that’s supposedly weak outside of Tarik Skubal. Out of all of the starting pitcher free agents, I took out all of the hurlers who didn’t throw 100 or more innings in 2026 because the Mets should not mess around with reclamation projects. Then, I narrowed the list down to the top 20 pitchers by xFIP.  (This does not include Japanese and Korean free agents set to be posted. We’ll get to them in a few days.)

We talked about Skubal a few weeks ago. If Steve Cohen wants to, and he doesn’t really think a salary cap will be implemented, he’ll throw more money than anyone at the left-hander. If Skubal is all about the moolah, he’ll go to the Mets. If he became comfortable with the Los Angeles Dodgers, or he misses his first home the Detroit Tigers, or the Angels and their new rich owner Stan Kroenke decide to get into the fray, or Cohen will defer to David Stearns on this one, he will not. That’s pretty much the deal. 

There’s a lot of talk that Stearns might and should go after both Michael King and Clay Holmes instead of Skubal. King would be a good addition, even though he was the beneficiary of good luck and/or good run prevention (had to) behind him in 2026. The whole “Can he play in New York?” question does not apply to him, because King pitched well with the Yankees in a past life. Holmes though lowkey was not as good with the Cubs as he was with the Mets - his ERA on the North Side was nearly two runs higher than it was in Queens. It’s possible that his injury impacted him more than he let on. It’s also possible he’ll be 100 percent healthy next year and I’m just a big worrier. 

Sonny Gray did not like his time playing in New York. Michael Soroka’s 116 innings is the most he’s thrown in a season since 2019. I don’t know if you can trust Peralta and Peterson to be successful in a return engagement. Foster Griffin was not nearly as good when he pitched in a pennant race with the Guardians than when he was with the Washington Nationals. So cross those five off the wish list. 

Kevin Gausman is an interesting case. He’ll be 36 during the 2027 season, but he has playoff experience during his time with the Toronto Blue Jays, where one of his teammates was Bo Bichette. I have no idea of their relationship, if any, but if they got along in Canada, maybe the Mets have an in on the gum chomper. 

Nick Martinez’s name has been bandied about, even though he’ll also be 36 years young next year. Martinez is a big clubhouse guy. The Mets can use one of those, no?

The trade market might be the way to go. Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins is rumored to be available, and the Mets just hired away Derek Falvey from that organization for their front office. Can Ryan handle big bad New York City? I have no idea. It’d be cute to have a Nolan and a Ryan in the starting rotation though. 

There are still some arms that could be the next Thornton hanging out in the Mets minor league system. RHP Jack Wenninger, LHP Jonathan Santucci, and RHP Gary Gill Hill are the top Mets prospects that saw some time in Triple-A Syracuse in 2026. 

The future of Mets pitching is brighter than it is pitch black, let’s put it that way. Some reinforcements though will be necessary. The good news is that the front office and ownership seems to be aware of that fact.

Nolan McLean last night became the first rookie pitcher ever to win a Gold Glove. He’s the first Met since Juan Lagares in 2014 to earn some gold. McLean joins Ron Darling as the lone Met pitchers to win a GG.

Carson Benge and Luis Torrens were also nominated for Gold Gloves, but unlike McLean did not win. Torrens was robbed. 

Jerry Koosman passed away from multiple illnesses. He was 83. Howie Rose considers him the greatest left-handed pitcher the Mets ever had. Koosman is connected to both Mets world championships. The southpaw won Game 2 and Game 5 of the 1969 World Series. In December 1978, Koosman was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a player to be named later. That PTBNL turned out to be Jesse Orosco, who was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 1986 Fall Classic. 

The Mets outrighted Cristian Pache, Eric Wagaman, Philip Abner, and Cameron Weston off their 40-man roster, per Anthony DiComo. This puts 39 players on the 40-man, which needed to be pruned down to 40 or fewer by today. (There’s no injured list in the offseason, so anyone on the 60-day IL needs to be activated, which tends to lead to a surplus.)

The following four players will be made available via the posting process with negotiations permitted to begin today: RHP Kaima Taira (Saitama Seibu Lions, NPB), RHP Hiromi Itoh (Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, NPB), INF Teruaki Sato (Hanshin Tigers, NPB), and INF Si-Hwan Roh (Hanwha Eagles, KBO). The Mets are known to have scouted Taira and Sato in person. 

The Mets posted a video asking viewers to listen with their headphones to fully experience Gary Cohen in the left ear and Howie Rose in the right ear for their most memorable calls.